By buying an index fund, you can easily approximately match the market return. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns and build a portfolio ourselves. Just take a look at Greek SA Football Predictions Organization (ATH:OPAP), up 50%, over three years, largely beating the market decline of 0.5% (excluding dividends). On the other hand, returns haven’t been as good recently, with shareholders up just 29% including dividends.
So let’s examine and see if the long-term performance of the business has been consistent with the progress of the underlying business.
Check out our latest analysis for the Greek Football Predictions Organization
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: in the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long term, it is a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get an idea of how investors’ attitudes toward a company change over time.
The Greek Football Predictions Organization was able to increase its EPS by 28% per year over three years, driving up the share price. This EPS growth is greater than the average annual share price increase of 15%. Therefore, it seems that the market has moderated its growth expectations somewhat.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the graph to see the exact values).
We know that the Greek Football Prediction Organization has recently improved its results, but will it increase its revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you determine whether EPS growth can be sustained.
What about dividends?
In addition to measuring share price performance, investors should also consider total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital increases, as well as any dividends, on the basis of the assumption that dividends are reinvested. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture of stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for the Greek Football Prediction Organization, the TSR over the past 3 years was 90%, which is better than the stock price return mentioned above. And there’s no price guessing that dividend payouts largely explain the divergence!
A different perspective
It is good to see that the Greek Football Prediction Organization has rewarded its shareholders with a total shareholder return of 29% over the last twelve months. This includes the dividend. This gain is better than the five-year annual TSR, which is 18%. Therefore, it seems that the sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic outlook might see the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the company itself is improving over time. While it’s worth considering the various impacts that market conditions can have on the stock price, there are other, even more important factors. For example, we have identified 4 warning signs for the Greek Football Predictions Organization of which you should be aware.
If you like buying stocks alongside management then you might love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders bought them).
Please note that the market returns quoted in this article reflect the average market-weighted returns of stocks currently trading on GR exchanges.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.